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  • 2. Electoral Trends
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12 June 2011 Elections Summary Report
June 2011

A short summary of political results of Konda Barometer - which has been done on first weeks of every month since March 16, 2010 - regarding parliament elections on June 12, 2011.

Polarization in Politics and the Society
June 2010

Authored by Bekir Ağırdır, this article is based on the data and findings of a survey conducted in April of 2010. It aims to take a snapshot of the polarization we are going through by elaborating on the differing values and viewpoints that various electoral groups and social clusters have with regard to daily political debates and to make sense of this snapshot.
The survey report was published as a series in the daily Radikal between June 13 and 17, 2010.

29 March 2009 Local Elections Survey
March 2009

In the survey that KONDA conducted prior the March 29, 2009 local elections, the measurement for the vote share of the incumbent was inaccurate; in short "KONDA's estimation failed to hit the mark." However, the vote share for the other parties were accurate within margins of error. In spite of this, the calculation error we made in this survey enabled us review and strengthen our analysis methods. We believe the sampling and the field work contained no errors or omissions. So for the sake of archives, we hereby present the brief report which was published in the daily Radikal three days before the elections. The repor contains significant clues about electoral behavior and preferences.

A New Era of Politics in Turkey
Bekir Ağırdır
August 2007

Written a month after the July 2007 general elections, this report by Bekir Ağırdır elaborates on whether the outcome of these elections will bring about a new era in politics in Turkey. Using data from a poll conducted by KONDA three weeks prior to elections, it discusses how the new rhythm of life calls for a new party and, given the goals of development and democratization, what kind a new party and an understanding of politics are necessary.

This report was published in the Radikal daily in August 2007.

Political Tendencies Survey Summary Report
2007 General Elections Tendencies Survey
July 2007

Three days before the general elections of July 22, 2007, when KONDA published its opinion poll and its prediction that the AKP would receive a sweeping 47 percent of the votes, the news practically had a bombshell effect in the media. The election outcome validated the opinion poll, turning KONDA overnight into a well-known and prestigious company. Based on data from this poll, conducted one week before elections, this report examines the demographic breakdown and political preferences of the electorate and concludes with Tarhan Erdem's commentary. The popular phrase on about these elections was "one out of every two people voted for AKP" and this report profiles who these people are.

This report was published as a series in the Radikal daily in July 2007.

What determined the contents of the ballot box?
Bekir Ağırdır
July 2007

Published in Radikal right after the July 2007 general elections, this report is an in-depth analysis of the election outcome based in survey data, the validity of which was verified by the election outcomes. Going beyond the simple examination of who voted for which party, the analysis places outcomes in a broader context of the political atmosphere, expectations from elections, the period of AKP rule, democratic values and a variety of other issues such as views on foreign capital.

This report was published as a series in the Radikal daily in July 2007.

12 September 2010 Referandum Opinion Poll
September 2010

This short report shows the "Yes" and "No" votes and boycott percentages in the polls that KONDA conducted during the four months prior to the 12 September 2010 Referendum on the Amendments to the Constitution. The measurement of 56,8 % Yes / 43,2 % No votes of the KONDA poll one week before the referendum "hit the mark" when the referendum resulted in 57,9 % Yes / 42,1 % No votes. The report sent to our subscribers also includes the distribution of votes by demographics groups and party preferences.

Representation of Women in Politics
April 2011

Launched by Ka.Der (Association for the Support and Traning of Women Candidates) prior to the 2011 general elections, the "275 Women" campaign aims to increase the number for women deputies in the parliament. As part of the campaign, Ka.Der held a press conference to announce the 'Representation of Women in Politics' research which was conducted by KONDA. The field work of the research took place in March 2011 and 5434 people were interviewed. The report shows that society would like to see women candidates assuming a bigger role in politics. In addition, people view the idea of a female family member going into politics rather positively. In this context, voters seem more open minded than parties.

Religion, Secularism and the Veil in Daily Life Survey
September 2007

Repeating a survey that KONDA had conducted in 2003, this survey both follows up on the percentage of veiled women compared to 5 years ago and also takes a snapshot of religious practices and the place of religion in daily life. Issues such as serving alcohol during Ramadan, women shaking men's hands, religious and civil marriage, sharing of inheritance are touched upon. One eye-catching finding in the survey is that the percentage of wearing turban, unlike many practices in society and unlike other methods of covering up (or not), is not affected by demographic characteristics such as education, income, urbanization and displays quite a different character.

The report was published in December 2007 in the Milliyet daily.

Who Are We? Life-styles Survey
April 2008

The Life-Styles Survey is the most-debated, most commonly referenced survey of KONDA, both in the press and in academia. The survey was modelled on perceptions, fears, expectations, political preferences, values, demographic characteristics and daily life-practices. After 6482 face-to-face interviews, the cluster analysis of the survey data revealed nine life-style groups which perfectly described the people of Turkey: Concerned Moderns, Humble Moderns, Conservative Moderns, In-Betweens, Youth of the Neighborhood, Religious Conservatives, Far-Awayers, Rural Traditionalists, Subsistence Seekers.

Who Are We? Social Structure Survey
September 2006

In September 2006, in a political climate in which the Kurdish issue was still discussed with caution, and Kurds were afraid to reveal their ethnic identity, a staff over 1500 people working for KONDA interviewed 48,000 people face-to-face in 79 out of the 81 provinces of Turkey. This unique survey allowed us to collect data not only on basic demographic characteristics, ethnic and religious affiliations, mother tongues, migration histories but also people's opinions on identity and citizenship and on the source of and possible solutions for the Kurdish issue. In its simplest form, the survey answers the question: "Who Are We?" Since general censuses no longer collect data on ethnic identity, the size and geographic distribution of the Kurdish population was unknown and this survey finally made this information publicly available, possibly even contributing to the today's more relaxed environment. In that respect, this is KONDA's most well-known research.

This survey was published as a series in the Milliyet daily in February 2007.